We are often told that China is governed by men, not institutions, and that power is vested in individuals, not in established structures of authority. Journalists, Hang Kong and Taiwan China watchers, and China scholars ponder the health of Beijing’s octogenarians, consider the actuarial politics of the looming succession, and wonder about the ups and downs of individual candidates to succeed Deng Xiaoping. This article will argue that, in general, who succeeds Deng Xiaoping is not very important, and that the background and characteristics of the candidates for succession, the way the successors will relate to each other after the death of the older generation, and the nature of the issues that will face the new leadership will all sharply constrain leadership choice. In other words, the political system is institutionalized in the sense that it is generally governed by norms and dominant in the sense that the system fundamentally constrains leadership choice.
