Over the course of the past half century the United States has declined, but unlike its former Soviet rival it has not fallen. From the point of view of the United States, the relevant questions now are, first, how the end of the cold war will affect the subsequent trajectory of its power and, second, how changes in American power (and, more broadly, in the distribution of power in the international system as a whole) will affect the shape and stability of the post-cold war order. In this article, I shall concentrate primarily on the first set of issues, examining in turn how the events of the late 1980s and early 1990s will combine with longer-term trends to shape the further evolution of American economic, military, structural, “soft” (cultural and ideological), and political power before turning briefly to a consideration of the larger significance of these trends. Because so much is contingent, both aspects of this discussion are necessarily speculative, with the projections of the second portion building on those of the first. Although there are a number of contrary trends, I conclude that on balance the end of the cold war will accelerate the relative decline in American national power. Changes in the distribution of power will lead to mounting disputes over the legitimacy of existing rules and institutions and as a result to a protracted period of international instability. This turmoil is likely to give rise to a set of separate, competing subsystems, not to a new, unified world order.
