We build a two-stage model of norm diffusion that combines elements of both approaches. This approach does not simply claim that both women’s movements and international socialization matter. Rather, it suggests that an historically phased process is at work in which domestic women’s movements have more influence at an early stage, and international socialization has a greater effect at a later stage. Further, we theorize about which types of states are most likely to fall into these categories and which states are the least likely to be affected by either process. Specifically, we expect leader states to be characterized by strong, autonomous domestic social groups and by sizable opportunity windows created by deep political restructuring. Followers–states socialized to adopt international norms–have lower levels of political stability and are relatively impoverished compared to both leader and nonconformist states. Nonconformist states lack either autonomous social groups or significant political opportunities (or both) and are too wealthy and too stable to be socialized successfully. Initial plausibility probes examining cross-national patterns in the Americas offer support for our hypotheses. We follow up with detailed process-tracing in some states and international organizations that offers additional support for the model. In our conclusions, we discuss broader theoretical implications, especially with respect to the constructivist argument that international norms redefine state interests and identities.
