Randomization and Social Program Evaluation: The Case of Progresa
Author(s)
Parker, Susan W.; Teruel, Graciela M.
Abstract
In this article, the author argues that solutions to ethnic conflicts need not depend on their causes. This paper offers a theory of how ethnic wars end, and proposes an intervention strategy based on the theory’s development. The author argues that stable resolutions of ethnic civil wars are possible, but only when the opposing groups are demographically separated into defensible enclaves. He argues that separation reduces both incentives and opportunity for further combat, and largely eliminates both reasons and chances for ethnic cleansing of civilians. In lieu of long-term peacekeeping, the international community ought reject attempts to restore war-torn multi-ethnic states and instead protect population movements to create true nation-states. Partition without separation does nothing to reduce killing, while ethnic enclaves with or without true soverignty can serve as the basis for future statehood while elminating conflict in the meanwhile.
