The Global and Regional Impact of Mortality and Fertility Transitions, 1950-2000
Author(s)
Heuveline, Patrick
Abstract
During the second half of the twentieth century, the world population, and even more so the population of the less developed regions, experienced demographic changes at an unprecedented pace. These changes in life expectancy at birth and in total fertility rates transformed the “average” life course, especially in less developed regions. Amongst the numerous studies, interest typically concerns the long-term implications of mortality and fertility trends into the twenty-first century. Fewer attempts are made to look back and assess how different is today’s world population as a result of past changes. This article evaluates the impact of demographic changes in the second half of the twentieth century on the end-of-century world population (hereafter referred to as today’s population). The impact of the mortality reduction of the past 50 years on the size, growth, and age structure of today’s population is first assessed for the world and broad geographic regions. The impact of fertility declines is similarly addressed.
