Lessons from the Kyoto Protocol: Implications for the Future
Author(s)
Philibert, Cedric
Abstract
The strengths and weaknesses of the Kyoto Protocol must be carefully assessed in designing future agreements to tackle climate change. The Kyoto Protocol’s main strength may lay in its emissions trading feature: a key for cost-effectiveness, environmental effectiveness, and equity. Its main weakness may lay in the incapacity of Kyoto-type targets to deal with the uncertainties surrounding climate change – especially on the side of abatement costs. A mere extension of the current protocol seems unlikely to effectively tackle climate change. A flat rejection of the structure it provides, however, would probably not offer better prospects. Agreements on policies and measures or “technology protocols” might be useful, but can hardly substitute for more comprehensive agreements that would provide clear price signals to economic agents. Carbon taxes would better deal with uncertain abatement costs, but may be more politically difficult at both domestic and international levels. A modified Kyoto structure might give the international community a better chance to achieve its ultimate objective, laid down in the United Framework Convention on Climate Change, of stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. It would keep the emissions trading framework but add to the Kyoto-style fixed and binding targets several options to better deal with uncertain costs, namely, price caps, indexed targets, and non-binding targets for developing countries.
