Reflections on the Kyoto Protocol--Looking Back to See Ahead
Author(s)
Cutajar, Michael Zammit
Abstract
The Kyoto Protocol can best be understood as being an economic instrument that uses flexible targets and market mechanisms to limit greenhouse gas emissions at the least cost. Its market orientation was largely inspired by the United States, which nevertheless opposes it on economic grounds. Yet a meaningful global regime requires the participation of the world’s largest economy, which in turn is a prerequisite for the engagement of large developing country emitters. Attracting the United States back into a multilateral approach will take time, during which its economic concerns must be addressed. The next phase of climate strategy should comprise a menu of emission-limitation commitments, suitable for different national circumstances, and be set in a longer time frame. An “aspirational” long-term target for atmospheric concentrations of anthropogenic greenhouse gases could be adopted as a guide to action. Moreover, resilience to climatic impacts and adaptation to climate change should be given greater importance. The environmental case for action to counter climate change has not generated sufficient traction in the economic sphere. Mobilizing commitment to an effective climate strategy will require informed economic advocacy and the involvement in negotiations of major economic actors, private and public. An approach that takes in concerns with global security and addresses the political economy of oil and coal may generate greater traction. Emission limitation pledges by private sector actors could complement governmental commitments, though governments must provide leadership and set the framework. Financial and technological incentives may be required to bring the heavyweight outsiders on board.
