Short- Versus Long-run Implications of Trade Liberalization for Poverty in Three Developing Countries
Author(s)
Hertel, Thomas W.; Ivanic, Maros; Preckel, Paul V.; Cranfield, John A. L.; Martin, Will
Abstract
The impacts of global trade reform on poverty are a key concern in the current trade negotiations under the Doha Development Agenda. The aggregate poverty impacts of trade reform are, in turn, strongly linked to the impacts of such reforms on the rural population as they constitute the overwhelming majority of the poor in almost all developing countries. This paper uses a new micro-simulation methodology designed to analyze this critical issue. The method and the underlying data are applicable to a wide range of trade policy reforms, including those under debate in the WTO as well as domestic reforms, such as changes in agricultural trade policies in developing countries, where a sea change from taxation to subsidization appears to be under way.
