On the Scale of Global Demographic Convergence 1950-2000
Author(s)
Wilson, Chris
Abstract
The second half of the twentieth century saw global demographic change of unprecedented magnitude. Taking the population of the world as a whole, the United Nations Population Division estimates that life expectancy at birth rose from 46.5 years in the early 1950s to 65.4 by the late 1990s. Similarly, fertility fell from a global average of 5.0 children per woman to 2.7 over the same time scale. The purpose of this assessment is to see how far these changes have led to the convergence of demographic patterns around the world. In order to do so, I take into account not just the levels of fertility and mortality in each country at different points in time, but also the size of each population. I also disaggregate China and India into their constituent provinces and states in order to provide estimates for units more typical of the size of the populations of other countries. The assessment considers population weights, rather than nations, as its main focus. It presents proportions of the world’s population according to the levels of life expectancy and total fertility they experience.
