The Tyranny of Small Differences: The Relationship Between Ethnic Diversity and Democracy in the Former Socialist Bloc
Author(s)
Gawthron, Louis C.
Abstract
Ethnic diversity, although obviously not the only product of historical legacy, is nonetheless thought to be a major factor in determining a variety of outcomes in political science, including economic growth, good governance, public goods distribution, and stability, in addition to democracy. The twenty-eight states of the former socialist bloc, whose regimes range from robust and consolidated democracy to unbridled authoritarianism, provide a strong test of the relationship between ethnic demography and democracy because they were all subject to the same political regime and all underwent regime change at the same time. To test this proposition, I first lay out several theories pertaining to the problems of consolidating democracy in plural societies, identifying three distinct mechanisms in the literature–violence, majority domination, and trust–through which ethnicity is thought to directly influence democratization. Next, I test each mechanism using ordinary least squares (OLS) regression to examine the relationships between ethnic pluralism, level of democracy, and the intervening determinants of democracy. Overall, the results offer little evidence that ethnic pluralism influences democracy. Finally, several case studies illustrate the relative unimportance of demography in determining the level of democratic consolidation and identify alternative explanations for the range of outcomes.
