A Predictive Framework for the Effectiveness of International Criminal Tribunals
Author(s)
Griffin, James Blount
Abstract
This article examines a new type of nuclear proliferation, known as second tier nuclear proliferation, in which developing countries trade among themselves for nuclear technology and weaponry, bypassing traditional great power and corporate sources. The concern for this type of “proliferation ring” is not new, but is spreading more rapidly than previously expected, and has a greater impact on the weapons programs of developing nations than predicted. The authors argue that any useful response must confront both the supply and demand sides of problem by limiting ability of sale of nuke material from first tier suppliers to private corporation (who ultimately sell to developing nations) while also addressing the processes states go through when developing their nuclear weapons and missle systems policies. This article specifically explores the interactions among the DPRK, Iranian, Libyan and Pakistani nuclear technologies, weapons, and missile programs, and discusses the implications of these interactions for the nuclear nonproliferation regime. The authors conclude by suggesting policy options to address second-tier proliferation and evaluating their potentials for success.
