Super-Ordinary Bias in Japanese Self-Predictions of Future Life Events
Author(s)
Ohashi, Megumi M.; Yamaguchi, Susumu
Abstract
Japanese are said to value being ordinary and emphasize similarity with others. We theorized that Japanese tend to perceive themselves as being ordinary, so much so that their self-predictions about future life events are biased (super-ordinary bias). Specifically, it was expected that Japanese overestimate the likelihood of experiencing common events (such as getting married or catching the flu) and underestimate the likelihood of experiencing rare events (such as winning a lottery or being murdered). We examined the effects of commonness and desirability of future life events on the relative-likelihood estimates. Our expectation was supported by three studies, involving a questionnaire, a laboratory experiment, and a mail survey. Findings are consistent with the assumed tendency to view oneself as being super-ordinary. The super-ordinary bias was also found to be independent of unrealistic optimism or pessimism.
