Whether China will become democratic is an interesting question with significant practical implications. This paper draws on the experiences of other Confucian societies (mainly Taiwan and South Korea) to show that it will be very difficult for China to become democratic anytime soon. Basically, in a Confucian society, people live in collectivities with stringent hierarchical structures. Such a feature is not conducive to democratization. In the cases of Taiwan and South Korea, cultural change, the emergence of a pluralistic social order following economic development, and foreign influence may have all contributed to their transition to democracy; however, more important is the quasi-pluralistic social order–namely, ethnic and national identity cleavages in Taiwan and regionalism in South Korea–in clearing the hurdle placed by the Confucian culture. Unfortunately, in China, no ready-made quasi-pluralistic social order exists, and other factors conducive to democratization may not be forthcoming soon, rendering the prospect of democratic transition in the foreseeable future quite bleak.
