Cognition, Caution, and Credibility: The Risks of Climate Forecast Application
Author(s)
Suarez, Pablo; Patt, Anthony G.
Abstract
Weather and climate forecasters are now in the business of communicating seasonal climate forecasts to decision makers. While it seems clear that these forecasts carry a great many potential benefits, it also appears possible that conveying too much information about the forecasts could have the potential to harm people. Based on theories from behavioral economics, we argue that many people are likely to overestimate the potential dangers of forecasts, and to err on the side of communicating too little information. We support this argument with evidence gathered over the last three years in Zimbabwe, in a project designed to help subsistence farmers understand and use seasonal rainfall forecasts.
